I have a friend who always signs her emails with “looking forward” — as in I’m looking forward to seeing you, getting together, our meeting, etc. But that term can also mean looking ahead to what is coming next, which is the focus of this month’s cover story, the 2023 SDM Industry Forecast [LINK to article], an annual piece that reports on both the previous year’s business trends as well as expectations for the coming year.

While security dealers and integrators are generally known to be an optimistic bunch, there are signs even they are growing both wary — and a little weary — of upheaval. From 2020’s pandemic that stretched through 2021 and beyond, to 2022’s supply chain issues, the security industry has been on a winding path for sure. Now there is a strong indication that 2023 will be a recession year.

Not surprisingly this year’s Industry Forecast respondents are a little less enthused about the coming year than in past years, although the majority — 59 percent — are still optimistic that they will experience revenue growth this year, down from 67 percent who thought the same last year. The survey also tracked actual revenues from the past year compared with those expectations and 50 percent realized an increase, with 43 percent staying steady.

Steady is the name of the game according to this year’s hand-picked panel of three security dealers and integrators, who provide real-world anecdotes and predictions to supplement the survey numbers. Two of the three reported both flat numbers for 2022 and a prediction of the same for 2023.

However, as panelist Joey Rao-Russell, president and CEO of Kimberlite Corp., put it: “Flat, with every bit of disruption that has occurred in last two years, while it doesn’t look sexy it is a good indicator of how wonderful our teams have done in providing a superior service. There has been a lot of chaos and trauma, even at home. In the last two years even if there wasn’t chaos in our business, some team members also overcame chaos outside of it. That [effort] has helped us sustain and keep attrition low.”

SDM spoke with Rao-Russell and panelist Bryan Cipoletti, president of Guardian Protection, for an podcast (link) that talks about three of the biggest issues facing security dealers and integrators today: the possibility of recession, ongoing supply chain issues and the talent shortage.

In the article, the panel also touched on what is going on in the M&A market (with the third panelist being Pavion, formerly CTSI, which has made a number of acquisitions in recent months). Perhaps surprisingly the panel all agreed that an economic downturn won’t necessarily slow down M&A activity, a topic that is covered even more extensively in the article,  (LINK to article: “Buying, Selling & Financing in Today’s Economy,” written by contributing writer Laura Stepanek.

Finally, you won’t want to miss our annual supplement,

Monitoring Today, featuring a cover story on how third-party monitoring companies are helping dealers thrive in this turbulent market, as well as a number of valuable columns from industry experts.

What are your company’s expectations for this year? Are you “looking forward” to 2023 with excitement, or concern, or something in between? Let us know by checking in with SDM on social at: