Security dealers and integrators are a resilient and for the most part optimistic group — a general outlook that has served them very well in recent unprecedented times that saw a worldwide pandemic and major supply chain shortages. Now as they look toward what most economists are predicting to be a recession year, those skills they have fine-tuned to survive the upheaval that was 2021 and 2022 will help them survive — and possibly even thrive — when facing the next challenge.

The 2023 SDM Industry Forecast Study (a report published every year since 1982) finds a group of security dealers and integrators not quite as bullish in their expectations for 2023 as they were in 2022, but still with a majority optimistic for an increase in revenues. This year’s report has 59 percent of respondents expecting an increase, with 35 percent predicting revenues will stay the same. Just 6 percent are predicting a decrease.

Looking back, 67 percent of last year’s respondents were predicting an increase when polled in November of 2021. But the reality was closer to 50 percent that actually achieved growth, with 43 percent staying the same. One big reason for many was supply chain problems, which really started being felt early in 2022.

Bryan Cipoletti

BRYAN CIPOLETTI joined Guardian Protection as president in May 2017. Prior to that he was chief financial officer at the Armstrong Group, Guardian’s parent company, where he also held various executive and board positions for over 30 years. Leading Guardian into the future, Cipoletti is committed to growth and profitability, reflecting the long-held principles of the Armstrong Group’s family ownership. He is a passionate believer in the power of leadership and company culture, viewing them as the most important factors in achieving success, despite competition in its many forms. Guardian Protection was ranked No. 8 on the 2022 SDM 100 and No. 47 on the 2022 SDM Top Systems Integrator’s Report.

“We will be fairly flat if not a little bit down [for 2022] due to some larger integration projects that are hampered by delays in the supply chain,” says Joey Rao-Russell, president and CEO of Kimberlite Corp., an independent Sonitrol franchise based in Fresno, Calif. that primarily serves the commercial market. “What has really hindered us in 2022 was when we could complete projects. Large integration is a big part of our install numbers and if construction couldn’t get lumber that slowed me down even if I had supply.”

Russell is one of three SDM Industry Forecast panelists this year— a group made up of security dealers and integrators of varying sizes and geographies.

Joey Rao Russell

JOEY RAO-RUSSELL has worked in the security industry for 20 years working in all aspects of the business including operations, sales up to her current position as the president & CEO of Kimberlite Corp., the world’s largest independent Sonitrol franchisee based in Fresno, Calif. She leads an award-winning team, including a central station specializing in audio and video verified security solutions for over 40 years. She is dedicated to improving police relations within the security industry. Rao-Russell serves as past president of the Sonitrol National Dealers Association; treasurer of Partnership for Priority Verified Alarm Response, and on The Monitoring Association board of directors. Kimberlite ranked No. 30 on the 2022 SDM 100 and No. 66 on the 2022 SDM Top Systems Integrator’s Report.

“I would say flat, too,” says Bryan Cipoletti, president of Guardian Protection, Warrendale, Pa. “The percentages are near zero plus or minus 1 percent.” Because of his company’s focus on the residential market and a group of trusted suppliers that helped shield them from supply chain issues, Cipoletti’s reason for a flat year is different from Russell’s. “Some of that was a bit self-inflicted. There are companies out there with different strategies and objectives and ways to grow therir businesses. We are about profitable growth; we open the spigot when times are good and when it isn’t turn it back a bit. We don’t want to bring on customers we don’t think will stay around; we don’t want to spend money on programs that don’t bear fruit. So sometimes we have to slow things down. That has been the case for last year and going into next year.”

Joseph Oliveri

JOE OLIVERI currently serves as president and CEO of Pavion, a Wind Point Partners platform company based in Chantilly, Va., which enables its customers to boost collaboration, increase life safety and security, and deliver enhanced communications. Oliveri joined the company in 2021 to lead the organization through accelerated acquisitive and organic growth, expand the company’s service portfolios and geographic reach, while improving business operations, customer service and financial performance metrics. Prior to joining Pavion, he held senior executive positions with Johnson Controls and Tyco International. He brings expertise in operations management, organizational growth, market penetration, accelerated revenue and EBITDA growth, M&A, innovation, and transformation. Pavion (as CTSI) ranked No. 7 on the 2022 SDM 100 and No. 3 on the 2022 SDM Top Systems Integrator’s Report, and was named SDM’s 2022 Systems Integrator of the Year.

SDM’s 2022 Systems Integrator of the Year Pavion (formerly CTSI), based in Chantilly, Va., but with offices around the country, is one company that had a very good year, in part because of a number of major acquisitions in 2021 and 2022, says president and CEO Joe Oliveri. “We anticipate 2022 global pro forma revenue to come in around $580 million as compared to 2021 revenue of $382 million, representing year-over-year growth of 52 percent. We saw increased wallet share from our existing customers as they respond to our cross-sell efforts. … Our base remained stable in a challenging year.”

This year’s Industry Forecast — illustrated in the graphs here and on SDM’s website at — does show some good news, both for last year and the coming year.

For example, there continues to be double-digit growth in both total annual revenue and recurring monthly revenue (RMR) for security integrators and dealers who participated in the study. Their total annual revenue increased by an average of 17 percent, just one percentage point less than the previous year. RMR grew for more respondents than the previous year (73 percent reported an increase versus 59 percent last year); however, that growth was at a more modest average of 19 percent (down 10 percentage points from the previous year).

One of the biggest changes from last year to this year was the relative importance of the pandemic on business. While last year’s report still had COVID-19 in the top three predicted challenges for 2022, going into 2023 just 9 percent of respondents listed that as an expected issue. Not surprisingly a majority cited supply chain issues as the No. 1 business challenge they are facing (54 percent). Economic conditions were cited by 44 percent as far and away the top factor that will impact 2023 sales (the next two coming in at 10 percent each).

The Panel Talks Supply Chain

SDM: What has been the impact of supply chain issues to your business? Do you think the supply chain will finally normalize in 2023? Why or why not?

Oliveri: Supply chain remains our No. 1 business challenge. While we see continued sales growth with a healthy backlog across Pavion business units, supply chain related product delays have caused downstream impact to project completion and associated revenue recognition. Throughout 2022, our vendor partners communicated expectations of supply chain delays easing; however, we have not seen favorable improvements through 2022, and expect continued challenges through most of 2023. As a result, product availability has become an important metric as we assess technology and solutions for our customers. Our strategy during this time is to remain well informed of supply chain status by meeting with strategic vendors weekly and prioritizing project and material allocation based on required customer completion dates. During the engineering stage, we provide our teams with vendor lead times to enable further collaboration with our clients on alternatives if required. Maintaining accurate vendor product availability allows us to also forecast labor capacity, maintaining a level balance to meet demands in a challenging market.

Regarding when it will normalize, here is what we are hearing from suppliers:

  • Leading indicators are positive, but recovery will be slow.
  • Supplier backlog growth is starting to slow but complex finished goods relying on raw materials, microchips, etc. remain long lead time items.
  • Suppliers are starting to see slight reductions in past-due orders.
  • Labor shortage and transportation cost headwinds are starting to ease for key suppliers.

Cipoletti: We were fortunate with 80 percent of our business being residential and small business that our core products come from just a handful of suppliers we have great relationships with. We were able to avoid any issues in our core products for our residential and small business customers. Our issues were with larger commercial, so less of an impact overall. … We had to make some pivots along the way but we worked through it successfully without an impact to business.

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At a macro level the pendulum is always swinging. It never stops at equilibrium. The market has a way of catching up. We have been smart in terms of looking at alternative products where we need to. We saw some things coming and purchased inventory well ahead. Short of risking obsolescence we were just risking cost of capital. We have been fortunate and not really lost any business as result of supply struggles.

Rao-Russell: 2022 was a year we had to pivot. … Sonitrol had a little backlog and challenges but between myself and our manufacturer/distributor we were well informed and planned for it. Certain manufacturers did a great job of telling us there were going to be lags in advance. I will give a shout out to Resideo. They were very honest about what needed to happen and how to stay ahead of supply chain shortages. Others I wasn’t as informed by. It’s about having good manufacturers and relationships and honest and open discourse back and forth. Those that were able to do that for us we had little disruption.

Looking ahead we will normalize but they may not. Many of us as part of our efficiencies after we got stuck with inventory in the great recession that we couldn’t move saw a shift. We decided we only wanted 30-60 days of inventory. Then lo and behold we started having supply chain issues. I have seen some loosening of issues. It is not as bad. I see it righting its way about 50 percent and see us righting our way the other 50 percent. It is just a matter as leaders of being cognizant and trying to plan as best we can. We have to be willing to modify and look at different products and how far out we forecast our equipment.

While the impact question can be interpreted positively or negatively, given predictions by economists such as Phil Mackintosh, chief economist at NASDAQ who spoke at Securing New Ground in October, it is a safe bet that most respondents are expecting the economy to have a more negative pull on business this year.

“If you talk to CEOs today they are pretty negative,” Mackintosh said at the conference. “If you are in manufacturing or services you feel like business has been contracted for months. CEOs tend to be a kind of optimistic bunch so that is not a great reading. If you are running a company you are coming off a sugar high. The stimulus made things a little too easy. Then the spending slowed down.”

However, given that the No. 2 business challenge cited by SDM Industry Forecast respondents is still finding/retaining employees — coming in at 46 percent — indications are that employment is still at full capacity and it is possible that this will not be the worst recession we have seen in recent times.

The Panel Talks Revenue Expectations for 2023

SDM: What is your revenue forecast/expectation for 2023?

Cipoletti: 2023 will be relatively flat. A lot of people will consider a security system when moving into another home. As the housing market slows down that reduces our opportunities for people to consider buying a security system and puts a damper on what otherwise would be a more robust outlook.

But we continue to increase our profitability despite flat revenue, RMR and customers. When things are flat in a stable business you spend a lot of time making operations more efficient and finding better ways to serve customers well and thus increase profitability. The more profitable you can be the more you can invest in growth when the time is right. … From a macro perspective high interest and mortgage rates will have the biggest single impact on sales in our largely residential business. We hope to offset that by growth in large commercial, but with 80-ish percent of our business being residential that is the biggest negative impact, unfortunately.

Rao-Russell: I think it will be a little down on installs because I believe capital expenditures will be down. Depending on how much of a blip [the downturn] is, 2023 will be flat or down. But if all projections are correct I would like to believe it will be back up starting in 2024. We are in a slow and steady race. Do it profitably and strategically; sustain 3-5 percent a year rather than 20 percent.

That said, flat, with every bit of disruption that has occurred in the last two years, while it doesn’t look sexy it is a good indicator of how wonderful our teams have done in providing a superior service. There has been a lot of chaos and trauma, even at home. In the last two years even if there wasn’t chaos in our business, some team members also overcame chaos outside of it. That [effort] has helped us sustain and keep attrition low.

Oliveri: We expect to continue our rapid growth trajectory in 2023. Besides supply chain, the most significant factors impacting security systems sales for Pavion for 2023 will be our continued focus of harmonization of our services portfolio and IT systems, cross selling security to our existing fire and integration customers, expanding existing security customer wallet share, and further investing in our top security industry verticals of FINS, utilities, data centers, healthcare, education and retail.

“The outlook is definitely less positive … but most recessions aren’t as bad as the COVID or credit crisis,” Mackintosh said. “Most are much less impactful.”

Our panelists largely agree.

“I think the economic downturn, while not as widespread yet as it is predicted to be, will be significant,” Cipoletti says. “Increasing interest rates and decreasing demand will impact negatively our ability to grow our customers through [the builder] channel, but generally our business has proven to be pretty recession-resistant so we don’t deal with that like other businesses might. We will feel the pinch … but overall I expect it not to have a meaningful negative impact.”

Outlook: Tempered Optimism

Security dealers and integrators were asked: How do you expect your overall company revenue to change compared with 2022?

While the majority of respondents to SDM’s Industry Forecast Study are still optimistic this year, with 59 percent expecting revenue growth in 2023, that is down 8 percentage points from the same prediction last year. Among those anticipating an increase, the expected mean increase is 17 percent, down slightly from last year’s mean of 20 percent. Six percent expect a decrease, the same percentage as last year. // Source: SDM 2023 INDUSTRY FORECAST

Dealers & Integrators Rate the State of the Market

Security dealers and integrators were asked: How would you rate the current state of the market for each of the following areas?

Video surveillance remained the top market segment for producing sales in 2022, staying steady at an average of 3.8 out of 5, the same as last year. Following video surveillance was access control, then monitoring. However, looking beyond the mean numbers at the percentage of those describing these markets as “very good or excellent,” the real winners were video surveillance (up 6 percentage points); monitoring (up 10 percentage points) and intercom/entry control (up 7 percentage points). // Source: SDM 2023 INDUSTRY FORECAST

Average RMR Increases 19 Percent

Distribution of Recurring Monthly Revenue in 2021/2022

Among companies that generate recurring monthly revenue, 73 percent reported an increase in their RMR in 2022 over 2021, an increase of 14 percentage points from last year. However, while more companies saw an increase, the average amount of the increase was lower, with the average 2022 RMR growth 19 percent higher than 2021’s (versus 29 percent last year). This table shows the distribution of RMR in various dollar ranges, comparing 2022 with 2021. // Source: SDM 2023 INDUSTRY FORECAST

Top Business Challenges: Supply Chain & Talent

The factors security dealers and integrators feel will be major challenges to their companies in 2023 (ranked among top three)

For the second year in a row supply chain issues topped the list of challenges, rising 7 percentage points over last year. Finding/retaining employees also kept its No. 2 spot, also rising 7 percentage points as a concern. However, COVID-19 fell drastically as a challenge, dropping 23 percentage points to under 10 percent. Controlling costs rose 9 percentage points to take the No. 3 spot. Protecting profit margins and generating recurring revenue also both rose up the list of concerns this year. // Source: SDM 2023 INDUSTRY FORECAST

Economic Conditions Top Influencer on 2023 Sales

The factors security integrators think will have the most impact on sales of security systems by their companies in 2023

Economic conditions not only stayed on top but rose sharply to be far and away the No. 1 factor security integrators and dealers believe will impact 2023 sales. COVID-19 dropped dramatically as a factor, replaced in its No. 2 spot by capital spending by businesses. The factors cited in this list could have either a positive or a negative effect on sales.\. // Source: SDM 2023 INDUSTRY FORECAST

Managed/Cloud-Based Services Currently Offered

The specific managed/cloud-based services currently offered by security integrators

Managed access control retained its spot as the top managed/cloud-based service currently offered by SDM Industry Forecast respondents, though down 7 percentage points over last year. Software as a service and network health monitoring both grew (14 percentage points and 11 percentage points, respectively). // Source: SDM 2023 INDUSTRY FORECAST

Revenue Change Expectations for 2023

Among those who currently offer the following products/services, respondents were asked: Compared to this year, how do you expect your company’s revenue in each of the following categories to change next year?

Average percentage of staff employed in various departments at SDM 100 companies

More than three-quarters of respondents expect their company’s revenue to increase within the video surveillance category in 2023, up 12 percentage points. Video analytics also rose sharply (18 percentage points) to take the second spot. Smart home, managed/cloud-based services, access control, fire and intrusion are all expected to see revenue growth for half or more of respondents. Intercom/entry control was the only category to expect a double digit decline in 2023. // Source: SDM 2023 INDUSTRY FORECAST


SDM’s Industry Forecast Survey tracks how security dealers’ and integrators’ total revenue is distributed among types of services. Together, 50 percent of revenue comes from sales and installation — across both residential and non-residential segments with the non-residential portion, staying steady from last year.



SDM’s Industry Forecast Survey tracks how security dealers’ and integrators’ total revenue is distributed among types of products. This year’s results saw integrated commercial systems rising 9 percentage points to take the top spot for the first time. Video surveillance held steady and most other product categories declined slightly. // Source: SDM 2023 INDUSTRY FORECAST

STRONGEST RESIDENTIAL MARKET: Existing Middle-Market & High-End Homes

Security dealers were asked to indicate the one residential market segment where they expect to see the highest rate of revenue growth for their companies in 2023.

The results of SDM’s 2023 Industry Forecast Study show that security dealers still look to existing middle-market homes for their residential sales, although it has shown a slow decline over the past few years. High-end homes continue to hold their own in the second spot. After falling significantly last year, new construction remains in fourth place, although improving slightly. // Source: 2022 SDM 100, // Source: SDM 2023 INDUSTRY FORECAST

5 STRONGEST NON-RESIDENTIAL MARKETS: Commercial, Education, Industrial, Retail, Government

Security dealers and integrators were asked to indicate the one non-residential market segment where they expect to see the highest rate of revenue growth for their companies in 2023.

The dealer and integrator channel expects its top three most prolific segments in 2023 once again to be commercial office space, but Education, which didn’t rank last year, is a close second, moving up 8 percentage points. Industrial/manufacturing/distribution, retail and government round out the other three. // Source: 2022 SDM 100, SDM Magazine, May 2022

Average Monthly – Residential: $80

Security dealers were asked to indicate the average monthly monitoring price of the residential systems their companies currently monitor.

The average monthly monitoring price of residential systems among respondents to the study was $80, down from $112 last year; however, the median price of $39 is likely more realistic. Of those surveyed, the “more than $50 category” saw the most growth, up 9 percentage points, suggesting some companies raised their monitoring prices in 2022. // Source: 2022 SDM 100, SDM Magazine, May 2022

Average Monthly – Non-Residential: $427

Security dealers and integrators were asked to indicate the average monthly monitoring price of the non-residential systems their companies currently monitor.

Dealers and integrators reported an average non-residential monthly monitoring fee of $427, versus $376 last year; however, the median price of $55 is likely more realistic, and is also up slightly ($5) from last year. Due to the broad nature of types of conditions that can be monitored for a non-residential subscriber, the prices charged by security companies are distributed across a wide range of categories, but the price range that experienced the sharpest jump this year was $56-$100, rising 15 percentage points over last year and indicating that for half of respondents their average non-residential monitoring fee is at least $56 per month. // Source: 2022 SDM 100, SDM Magazine, May 2022

External Capital Usage

Security dealers and integrators were asked: Do you currently or are you planning on utilizing external capital to support your business this year?

More companies used last year or plan to use external capital in 2023, with 33 percent indicating they currently use it (up 10 percentage points from last year) and 17 percent planning to use it in 2023 (up 5 percentage points). However, more than half don’t use or plan to use external capital and the rest don’t know. // Source: 2022 SDM 100, SDM Magazine, May 2022

Rao-Russell adds, “I remember other minor recessions. There is definitely going to be a decrease in demand no matter how you slice it, no matter how diversified you are. We are a consumer economy. Even my business, which is mostly commercial, when residential isn’t buying that floats up to small commercial, which floats up to large commercial. So we are bracing for the fact that we are expecting sales to be down. … However, we do tend to find that because we specialize in high levels of customer service this is also the time when customers want to stay with us. We will focus more on our attrition to keep the customers we have because there is not as much opportunity for new business.”

While Oliveri expects his company will continue its rapid growth trajectory in 2023, he too is keeping an eye on the economy. “An important factor, which we will keep a close eye on as 2023 progresses, is inflation, its economic impact and resulting influence on client budgets and spend throughout the year,” he says.


SDM spoke with two of our panelists — Joey Rao-Russell and Bryan Cipoletti — about the three biggest issues facing security dealers and integrators today: The predicted economic downturn; supply chain issues; and recruiting and keeping technical talent.

Where numbers are compared year over year, many of this year’s Industry Forecast numbers stayed relatively consistent or slightly down. But bright spots included revenue expectations in the video and video analytics space — up double digits over last year — and 2022 revenue breakouts for integrated commercial security systems, up 9 percentage points over 2021 in spite of supply chain issues and ranking as the No. 1 type of system for the first year (overtaking video surveillance in that particular chart). And education as a non-residential market sector moved up 8 percentage points to take second place in the top five strongest markets.

The Panel Talks RMR

SDM: How did your company’s 2023 recurring monthly revenue (RMR) change compared with 2021? And how do you expect 2023 RMR will change compared with 2022?

Rao-Russell: 2022 was up slightly with RMR because of a price increase and we realized a full year of monitoring from an acquisition. 2023 will probably be slightly flat unless we do more acquisitions. That will be the only way we will grow that substantially. That is where we see our RMR model going now. Once money loosens up we expect to grow both organically and through acquisition.

Cipoletti: Flat for us as well. These aren’t exciting answers, but that is our reality. Short of landing an acquisition we are pursuing, business in 2023 will not be dissimilar from 2022.

Oliveri: We realized 6 percent YOY services organic growth. Through ongoing business integration efforts, we are launching a standard Pavion portfolio of services across the fire, security and integration business units in 2023, ensuring consistent service delivery for our customers. Services include as-a-service, test and inspect, maintenance, managed services, cyber, MSP, and in-house monitoring and operations center services for security, fire, cyber, IoT, and IT infrastructure solutions. As a result, we anticipate accelerated growth for RMR in 2023 through new service offers and increased renewal rates. Our IT MSP and Cyber MSSP business growth was a particular standout, posting 70 percent organic revenue growth, 60 percent of which are term contracted RMR. We anticipate MSP/MSSP revenue growth to continue at a similar pace in 2023, as mid-market customers continue cloud migrations, outsourcing IT services, and investing in cybersecurity due to expanding IT security threats.

Looking ahead to 2023 the Industry Forecast panelists all agree that relying on both their inherent strengths as well as lessons learned over the past two years will help them weather whatever is coming next.

“2022 was a year we had to pivot,” Russell says. “In 2021 we didn’t have a backlog; in 2022 we started getting backlogs 10 weeks at a time as we were given everything but these five pieces. … We always tried to standardize on specific products so we could be experts on it; but our customers trust us to keep them working. … Thanks to supply chain shortages we opened that up quite a bit [to new offerings].”

One unknown she points to, however, is how the supply chain will impact traditional ways of coping with recessions for her business, particularly in the fire space, which has been hard hit with supply issues. “Fire is something everyone has to have, so if we can get the parts that tends to be one of the areas that grows during a recession because that is what people will be willing to invest in. That is my biggest unknown for 2023 — if I will be able to get the products that can help me pivot to other forms of business when the residential or homebuilding or construction may be a little bit smaller.”

The Panel Talks Acquisitions

SDM: 2022 was a big year for acquisitions. Did you do any acquisitions in the last 12-18 months, or are you anticipating doing any in the coming year?

Oliveri: We acquired 12 companies in the last 18 months, expanding our reach across 22 countries and over 40 locations in the U.S. The M&A pipeline continues to be strong as the industry remains well positioned for continued consolidation. We anticipate continued acquisition growth through 2023. While expanding our capabilities to deliver Pavion services across the U.S., we also anticipate more significant M&A activity to expand our global footprint. Our pace of acquisitions for 2023 is likely to remain consistent or possibly a bit stronger than 2022. We continue to be highly selective in the M&A opportunities we pursue, ensuring proper cultural fit, fiscal, and customer satisfaction performance metrics.

Cipoletti: For the first time in a number of years last year we made an acquisition. It is now a deliberate part of our growth strategy. We have created the right organization with the right people to integrate companies well and leverage the infrastructure that we have. We have made our first one. Now we are looking at a couple others. It is a little bit challenging because we are focused on our geography. So if there is a company outside our footprint we often walk away. Acquisitions are more limited but part of what we want to do to grow. An economic downturn and higher interest rates, from our standpoint, create opportunities. Because when money is free and flowing and people are over-paying for businesses it is challenging for us to be a competitive bidder. As rates go up and capital availability dries up a bit, prices start to come down, and we are more attracted and attractive to potential sellers. It sounds bad but when things get bad that is an exciting time for us to use our financial strength and capacity to get out there and bring on some companies and help grow our base.

Rao-Russell: We actually did an acquisition at end of 2020. We are open to it again. It is a really great market. I am somewhat limited by geography as well but [thinking about] culture and wanting to retain good people, that is really the bigger challenges for acquisition because we want it to be a good fit for them as well as us. We look for targets very similar to ours: Family-owned, strong ties to community. That is a bigger indicator of success for us. I do see that prices might come down. When money was free and [some] players in the marketplace got extremely aggressive with their acquisition strategy, that was just unrealistic for us to meet as an employee-owned company. At the end of the day we are in the long game, but I have to look at it that all my employees’ retirements are part of what we are planning for, so it has to be a good strategic and financial match for us. Overpaying at 60 or 70 multiples wasn’t in our interest. I think those players may go away a bit and it will be a more even playing field for companies like mine to be a little more aggressive in our growth strategy for acquisitions.

The skills and efficiencies learned by both supply chain issues and the pandemic before that are what will help security dealers and integrators stay strong, Cipoletti says.

“What we have done at Guardian over the last few years is to streamline and right size our business,” he continues. “We have been deliberate about focusing on our footprint. We expect good times and bad times so we don’t go all in on the good times and we don’t get pessimistic on the bad times. We run our business always prepared to slow things down if we need to and ramp up if we have the opportunity to. What may come in 2023 may be a surprise to the prognosticators, but our business can still be profitable even if we slow down.”

Rao-Russell agrees. “There is currently a supply-based inflation that has to be overcome. We can’t control the world, and we are a world economy. We provide a level of service, a level of security and convenience and help to our customer base that becomes a necessity. … It may not be the best year, but if we stay true to what we are doing all of our companies will be just fine. Now, plan for it and be smart with your money, but my crystal ball says this is just a temporary blip and we have to proceed accordingly.”

EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is based primarily on a report produced by Clear Seas Research, “SDM Industry Forecast,” produced in November 2022. To see more of the charts, learn more about the report or to purchase, visit

Clear Seas Research is a full service, B-to-B market research company focused on making the complex clear. Custom research solutions include brand positioning, new product development, customer experiences and marketing effectiveness solutions. Clear Seas offers a broad portfolio of primary, syndicated research reports and powers the leading B-to-B panel for corporate researchers, myCLEARopinion Panel, in the architecture, engineering, construction, food, beverage, manufacturing, packaging and security industries. Learn more at

The Panel Talks Acquisitions

SDM: 2022 was a big year for acquisitions. Did you do any acquisitions in the last 12-18 months, or are you anticipating doing any in the coming year?

The Panel Talks Opportunities for 2023

SDM: What are the biggest growth opportunities you see for your business in 2023?

Rao-Russell: For us it is the ever-waning resources for law enforcement and that violent crime is up. Having verification and being able to give both our customers and law enforcement information both through video and audio, that will be our best growth opportunity. … Technology-wise access control has grown a lot, as have intercoms. As more and more people are working from home we no longer have gatekeepers in our offices. Having those management reports for people working remotely I think will continue to grow as well as augmenting with video and analytics. As technology gets better, even on the commercial side we are getting demands for lifestyle benefits as opposed to just security.

Cipoletti: Video continues to be in increasing demand and I expect that to grow in 2023. With video becoming an increasingly desirable component and the evolution of the technology of video and analytics and the quality of hardware and software, our opportunity is to leverage that better than we have in the past. Thirty to 40 percent of our customers take some sort of outdoor camera. But we don’t do as good a job of making sure they understand the full functionality of the video capabilities we do offer. By enhancing awareness of what we sell to prospective customers and helping them upgrade and do all we can to make sure they engage with their system — the more they appreciate and stay with us.

Oliveri: Continued acquisitions expanding our capabilities to deliver Pavion services across the U.S. and globally; cross selling across our business units; service portfolio harmonization and expansion with focus on RMR sales and renewals; expansion of existing customer wallet share; compliance as a service for the fire business unit; and proactive system health monitoring.

As the cyber threat footprint has expanded outside of IT endpoint and servers to include the full spectrum of IoT and integration technologies, we anticipate continued expansion of our IT MSP and cyber MSSP business. Pavion cybersecurity, monitoring, and managed services offers are unique in that we not only support traditional IT and MSP customer requirements, but now our cyber capabilities are leveraged across the entire Pavion IoT ecosystem of solutions including physical security, life safety, fire, IT infrastructure, AV, collaboration, and critical communications.