ABI Research, a global technology intelligence firm, forecasts public key infrastructure (PKI) internet of things (IoT) revenue to reach $5 billion globally by 2030, as cybersecurity regulation, vertical-specific standards, and national, regional, and global IoT initiatives drive demand for robust identity and access management solutions.

Aisling Dawson, Industry Analyst, ABI Research, said, “Given the multivariate environment of the IoT, adaptable PKI offerings and integrated solutions that cater to IoT devices are on the rise, signaling a shift toward scalable, web-based trust networks within the IoT space, away from traditional, centralized PKI offerings. Interest in the value of PKI-based authentication protocols for IoT devices is further compounded by increasing automation opportunities in the PKI space, particularly regarding automated certificate issuance, renewal, revocation, and device decommissioning. AI and ML are poised to bring much-needed agility to IoT cryptographic management, assuaging post-quantum anxieties.”

According to ABI, the merits of PKI-based solutions for the IoT have been endorsed by experts in the PKI space who are well-placed to expand their digital trust presence into the IoT, including Keyfactor, Venafi, Utimaco, and DigiCert. IoT-specific PKI solutions are also gaining traction among major players like Entrust and GlobalSign, creating new competitive dynamics between PKI industry players. Container-based Certificate Lifecycle Management and embedded PKI are rising in popularity across verticals, in parallel with increasing enterprise reliance on containerized and cloud-based data storage options.

As the PKI-IoT market matures and use cases are increasingly refined, the automotive, manufacturing, and healthcare verticals are expected by ABI to be particularly significant hotspots for boosted PKI-IoT revenue generation, especially given the emphasis on quantum-resistant solutions within the 2023 to 2030 period. Vendors like Sectigo and AppViewX are prioritizing certificate dynamism, while leading quantum-safe technology providers like SEALSQ and Kudelski are integrating post-quantum cryptographic algorithms into their PKI-IoT solutions.

“PKI’s potential to secure IoT devices is huge,” Dawson continued. “However, it is no nirvana. The continued evolution of PKI to reflect IoT-specific requirements and the development of IoT-specific PKI solutions is necessary to ensure PKI plays a meaningful role in enhancing IoT device security rather than serving as a marketing exercise. PKI’s cryptographic underpinnings do provide an opportunity for quantum-resistant certificates, yet post-quantum cryptography faces innate incompatibilities with IoT devices’ core attributes, especially regarding storage and computational capabilities, potentially hampering growth across verticals. Rigorous testing of post-quantum PKI within IoT systems and getting on the post-quantum wagon early will provide an important competitive advantage as PKI becomes increasingly enmeshed with IoT device security.”

These findings are from ABI Research’s PKI for IoT application analysis report. This report is part of the company’s Quantum Safe Technologies research service, which includes research, data, and ABI Insights.