Happy New Year, and welcome to 2026! As we have done every year since 1982, this month features the 2026 Security Industry Forecast, complete with a host of charts and graphs, as well as interviews with a sampling of security dealers and integrators on various topics ranging from business predictions to discussions on the economy and where they think AI is heading.

“A lot about what I think about is the economy, AI and where AI is going,” says Josh Dice, president, Security Alarm Corp., in the article.

While no one is saying they are actively concerned about the economy in 2026, it is definitely on everyone’s minds, including those who participated in our annual survey, with economic conditions topping the list as likely to have the most impact on sales of security systems in 2026.

Whatever we think is probably going to come and surprise us is probably not the thing that’s going to come and surprise us.”

Scott Elkins, CEO of Zeus Fire and Security, describes himself as a “poor prognosticator,” but notes that — as in the past few years — whatever people in the industry are worrying about now is probably the wrong thing. “Whatever we think is probably going to come and surprise us is probably not the thing that’s going to come and surprise us,” he says.

One thing Elkins and many others are not afraid to predict, however, is that AI will have an impact on a lot of things in 2026, both inside and outside of the security industry. “I think it’s going to create opportunities that we can’t even imagine at this point,” Elkins says. “But I do think it’s going to have a material impact and a positive impact on our industry.”

AI is also the focus of this month’s annual Monitoring Today Supplement. SDM Managing Editor Bri Wilson writes about how AI is becoming the monitoring industry’s “most valuable new hire” in Solving the ‘People Problem’ in Monitoring Centers With AI Augmentation.

This also ties back to the Industry Forecast and what is most pressing on the minds of the survey respondents. “Finding/retaining employees” was once again the top predicted business challenge in 2026.

I am no prognosticator either. But it doesn’t take a crystal ball to see that the top three issues that will continue to impact 2026 will likely be these three things: talent acquisition/retention, the economy and technology advancements, particularly AI. That said, this industry is historically both optimistic and resilient, and I predict that 2026 will be another year of growth and change. As for surprises, we will have to see what the next 12 months brings.