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Across the board, manufactures and security integrators reported a strong 2024. If they didn’t share that their organization experienced growth, they indicated that their performance was steady in the access control market. In SDM’s 2025 Industry Forecast, 86 percent of respondents indicated that their perception of the access control market was “good to excellent.”

So what’s benefiting the market? For one, Angelo Faenza, head of digital access solutions, ASSA ABLOY Opening Solutions Americas, New Haven, Conn., points to end users’ increased awareness of and experience with the technology available to them. “The best news is that we’ve seen end users become more sophisticated and informed about these solutions,” he says. “They’ve done more research than I’ve ever seen in my career. They’ve done their homework. And we’ve also been a resource for them as partners. While we never sell directly to an end user, we do spend time helping them learn about the technology and the options that are available.”

This is a trend that’s become increasingly relevant over the past few years as end users get familiar with FaceID, wallet-based credentials, and a general relationship to using mobile apps for traditionally sensitive transactions like banking and paying bills. Users are aware that the industry has moved past physical key cards.

“What’s interesting to me is that we in this industry understand what security and access control are, but traditionally most of our friends and colleagues have no idea what it is or what to look for,” Faenza continues. “But in the last few years, many people I know are asking, ‘Hey, my daughter’s going to college, my son’s going to college, what do we look for when it comes to security on campus and in their dorm?’ Nobody really asked that question 10 years ago. It’s a really good sign for our industry that parents and other people are thinking about it.”

2024 Trends: As-a-Service & In the Cloud Dominated

There are a few technological trends that have pushed growth — and user excitement — over the last year. Credentials going mobile, solutions being deployed in the cloud, and the shift towards “as-a-service” are a handful of most of the top-of-mind tech trends, and experts expect these technologies are here to stay. “I predict more as-a-service solutions,” says Tina D’Agostin, CEO, Alcatraz AI, Cupertino, Calif. “In the physical security segment, there’s more adaptation of buyers thinking about security not as (capital expense) CapEx, but more as (operational expense) OpEx, so that they continuously can be improving and adapting their technologies.”

SDM Industry Forecast Survey respondents were also bullish on “as-a-service” offerings, with 65 percent saying they currently offer access control as a service, and even more (73 percent) currently offering managed access control.

D’Agostin says Alcatraz AI saw increased as-a-service adoption. “It’s where we continue to see growth and we expect it to continue in 2025. The speed at which security technology is moving, hardware can be outdated before you even hang it on the wall. So we designed an as-a-service model so that companies’ access control and biometric solutions at the edge evolve with the ever-changing threat and compliance landscape. We’re a full stack platform that makes our customers future ready, and they appreciate that proposition.

“I would predict more as-a-service solutions in the physical security segment,” D’Agostin continues. “Technology is moving at an unprecedented speed, and customers can’t afford to invest in technologies that remain stagnant. An as-a-service model is the way to ensure that they’re future ready.”

The ease of entry into the world of recurring monthly revenue — the “as-a-service’ model — goes hand-in-hand with the rise of cloud-based solutions. This combination fosters a closer, stickier and more long-term relationship between the end user and the integrator.

“The cloud service has really been a game changer,” says Tim McHugh, business development director, Integrated Protection Services, Lexington, Ky, featured on this month’s cover along with Taylor Neal. “That’s probably been the single biggest impact. I would say that even over the last three years, our customers have been much more receptive to a cloud-based access control platform and the subscription model that goes with that. They’ve really become much more accepting, no longer wanting to just do things as a CapEx and just hope that it lasts 10-15 years. They love the flexibility that the cloud brings. They love the ease of managing the system remotely, as well as just the ease of being able to update things wherever and at any time you want to.”

Aaron Black, vice president of sales, Napco Access Pro, Amityville, N.Y., emphasizes the strength of cloud-based solutions, saying, “The biggest opportunity is the cloud adaptation that the market is seeing. You’re starting to see more and more dealers install a cloud-based system instead of a traditional on-prem system.”

The best news is that we’ve seen end users become more sophisticated and informed about these solutions,” he says. “They’ve done more research than I’ve ever seen in my career. They’ve done their homework.

There’s also a tremendous opportunity in modernizing end users’ access control systems. “With the legacy on-premise customers, users are asking us, ‘How do we roadmap this? How can we set a transition path?’ And they’re really trying to fully understand the logistics of doing that,” says Ryan Knoll, account executive, Pro-Tech Design, Santa Fe Springs, Calif. “With that focus, some of the partners we brought on offer the functionality to flash existing hardware. It’s not going to be a complete rip and replace, which a lot of times is a huge hurdle for organizations, especially if you start getting into hundreds of doors and multiple locations. As long as you’re on the standard hardware, we can go out there and say, ‘It’s labor only.’ We can handle the user migration. We’ll go out and flash the boards and you’re up and running and you can use all your existing hardware. That’s huge.”

Experts say the ease of leveraging benefits of remaining up-to-date with as-a-service solutions have contributed to the market’s growth because of how clear the gains are for the user. “We made a push to try to get service agreements in place for some of our on-prem access control deployments,” McHugh says. “They hadn’t been updated in a long time, so we needed to send a tech out to update a piece of equipment. We came to see a five year cycle of a server not having enough computing power. So if you go back five years, we had some tough conversations with customers informing them that we couldn’t modernize them with the server they had in place. It doesn’t have enough computing power associated with it, so you’re going to have to go buy a new server and modernize it. Then we’ll come on out to get you on an updated system. Now, we’re having the same conversation with some of the same customers. We’re talking to them about how we’d love to put them on the current version, but you don’t have enough computing horsepower. Those conversations for upgrades are becoming very easy for us to say, ‘Let’s look at going cloud-based. You don’t have to be in this predicament again.’”

Integration & Consolidation

Another huge trend that continued through 2024 and is expected to extend beyond 2025 is that of the convergence of technology. If not total convergence, then solutions are at least increasing their integrations with other technologies. “Integration is huge right now,” says Rob Druktenis, program manager, access control, Axis Communications, Chelmsford, Mass. “I see a transition in the market where users are trying to consolidate all the different hardware platforms for all the different software platforms they’re on. There’s integration from the software side of things and also from the hardware side. At Axis, we’re huge on end-to-end solutions, and because we have a VMS platform that has access control already built in, there aren’t any extra fees or costs that we have to associate if a customer says they want to add access control. It’s pretty seamless. It’s just a simple device license they have to add and they can start adding doors.”

Warren Hill, executive director of product management, Digital Monitoring Products (DMP), Springfield, Mo., highlights the benefits of these technologies converging. “Another thing I want to emphasize is just the marrying of video with access control [and] when doors are accessed, being able to see and visually verify if the person that accessed that door was who their credentials said they are. Video also enables us to use more of that intelligence to analyze right up front before access is actually granted.”

Knoll draws attention to the integrations that have been enabled by cloud technology. These integrations have driven growth, as they allow access control systems to interface with other building management capabilities, which is something the end user desires. “I think that’s really been the big driver for us especially as those integrations are starting to touch other areas of their business. It’s not just, how do we allow our employees to open and close the door? It’s also how can we use our data and leverage that to get other increased functionality, whether that be through things like the HVAC system or booking meeting rooms and managing visitors? Embracing cloud and cloud adoption just continues to go up and up.”

From the integrator perspective, Roy Stephenson, director of business development, Utah Yamas Controls, Salt Lake City, agrees with this sentiment. “I think the integration of access control and video surveillance will continue, and that behavioral analytics will be used to identify threats and suspicious activity,” he says. “I think that’s going to be pushing some innovations in the industry, especially as more and more things go online, and everything becomes cloud-based. That information that we store and gather with the access control systems and video surveillance is becoming a major commodity. And that information can be used to create more secure buildings.”

A move away from proprietary solutions and towards interoperable credentials is another related trend. End users are increasingly showing interest in freedom and flexibility in the access market. “There’s a desire among end users for having their device credentials and systems to be interoperable,” says Ben Brydges, executive vice president, dormakaba North America, Indianapolis. “Users want to have those choices and the freedom of choice in terms of devices and credentials. But with that you have to wonder, am I then sacrificing security because I’m giving up a proprietary air-tight system? There’s a balance and we need to take a look at that and educate everybody on the trade-offs for all of those things.”

Education Sector Drives Growth

There’s one vertical that experts indicated substantial growth in more than any other: education. In this sector, aging systems, regulation compliance, and an increase in active shooter events have driven growth. “We started to get more requests for the ability to support wireless lock sets,” Druktenis says. “There are more and more customers that want to put access control on doors without having to deal with the cost of cabling and things like that. The vertical we saw the most traction in was the education market. I think we are starting to see a lot of school districts that are wanting to transition some of their old technology. I think it’s getting to that point also — with the grants that are available to them — that they have some extra funds that they can use to secure their schools and update the technology.”

Hector Melendez, technical director, Traka Americas, Orlando, Fla., speaks to that increased fund spending in the education vertical driving growth as well. “Last year, there were definitely some changes in regulation compliance in some of the sectors that have more robust management and reporting requirements for their keys and assets,” he says. “This also was coupled with increasing funding for better physical security — specifically in schools — especially in the higher ed. There’s also an increase in awareness of integrated security platforms that can offer and facilitate management efficiencies outside of just your traditional access control.”

On the integration side, the funding is apparent as well. “The educational market is one of our big vertical markets, and there’s been a big push — obviously — with active shooter scenarios and lockdowns,” Stephenson says. “Schools have been spending a lot of money. Higher education has been spending a lot of money on the ability to lock down their campuses or schools in the event that something happens. There were also a lot of COVID-era grants and loans that were available that the state didn’t spend, and they were able to convert those funds to capital improvements, which provided a lot of these schools the ability to upgrade a lot of systems that have been aging.”

Generally, a familiarity with and preference for mobile credentials in the education sector is driving growth, too. “Demand at the university level is also strong as students want to use mobile credentials rather than a card, fob, or key,” Faenza says. “Just like they use mobile apps for so many other transactions, they expect to use their phones for effortless access to residence hall rooms and other access-controlled entrances that they’re authorized to enter. EAC is also being more widely deployed at the community college level for instructors, facilities managers, and campus safety team members. And we’re seeing more expansion into K12 environments to give teachers, staff, law enforcement, and firefighters more nimble, secure access.”

The security industry is leveraging the convergence of technology to respond to the increase in active shooter events in education. In the event of an active shooter, there are both important credential access granting capabilities and important camera access capabilities. “With school districts right now, there are big pushes to have local police departments be able to see their cameras, granting them access and providing them access cards,” Stephenson says. “There’s a lot of cooperation between responding agencies, because if there’s an active shooter scenario, it’s just whoever’s closest — everybody’s coming. It helps to have everybody on the same page, so that they can see what’s happening and respond quicker and know what they’re getting into, rather than just rush into a building completely unaware.”

In the second part of our State of the Market on access control, experts discuss AI, the move to the wallet, as well as some of access control’s biggest challenges in the coming year.